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Thread: Covid-19

  1. #91

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    Two new cases in Hawaii. The couple knew they'd been exposed.
    Point 1, they traveled any way.
    Point 2, the health workers had no protective equipment at two locations.
    Is the picture reasonably clear. I'm in a hot spot, even though, our family made plans to travel and we may lose our air fare, we are not going. What China did had a lot of by-kill that didn't show in the numbers. People that needed other medications, didn't get it. Supplies ran out. They may have contained it but we don't know for how long or the total cost.
    Stop traveling, please!
    Dwight

  2. #92
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gary C View Post
    The mortality rates are completely unreliable and wont be known for may a year to come and will be modified by a build up of resistance.
    You missed my point. I did say, "until there is more data", we need to assign the appropriate level of concern based on the data at hand. And resistance doesn't help the population in the now. And, as I said before, I would rather over-react than under.

    I'm not disputing any claim made here that the media and public are vastly over-reacting essentially based on fear-mongering. But that's the only thing that gets through to the masses. I've seen some pretty unsanitary behavior in public places without a declared pandemic. If you leave control of the spread to the rational well thought-out scientific reasoning of every member of the public to self-control, we'll all be dead by morning!

    And to tipc, I hope you are right in the end. I don't want to squash opinions - especially minority ones. But anything other than a data-based response can potentially be very harmful. Even if the data today is known to be far from perfect.
    "Good engineers keep thick authoritative books on their shelf. Not for their own reference, but to throw at people who ask stupid questions; hoping a small fragment of knowledge will osmotically transfer with each cranial impact." - Me

  3. #93
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    Quote Originally Posted by eeguru View Post
    You missed my point. I did say, "until there is more data", we need to assign the appropriate level of concern based on the data at hand. .
    Fair enough.

    Its difficult to know the 'level of concern' given the current evidence that everyone who has died in the UK have 'underlying health issues'. It appears the majority of a population will catch it before a vaccine is available and the UK response is concerned with reducing the rate to ease the pressure on the NHS rather than trying to prevent infections.

    It does appear the infections in the UK are far higher than can be 'controlled' and I suspect its the same in most countries.

    I think the response should be more concerned with protecting at risk groups.

  4. #94

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    Any calculation on a moving target is going to be flawed. Still we can look at maximum and minimums. China that now has declining cases, we can see a maximum number, based on the number of recognized cases ( I know many younger people don't get tested and go under the bar but that only support the maximum ).
    They have 66930 recovered cases and 10720 current active cases. They have 3199 deaths ( not count current today on any of these numbers ). Things are running long enough there that we can start to put some brackets on thing ( and yes I know they may not have the best top notch care in the world ). They still have the best numbers for a min/max.
    Ok
    3199/(66930+3199)= 0.046 or 4.6% near maximum.
    3199/(66930+10720+3199)= 0.039 or 3.9% near minimum.
    This is for the people that do get recognized with the virus.
    Based on China's numbers it looks like around 4%. Still mostly in the higher age group, meaning 40+. The ratios seem to grow exponentially by 2X for every 10 years of age until 90+ where they are seeing around 25% to 30% someplace. These are based on the recognized numbers of cases.
    These are China's numbers. Their information gathering may be flawed so take it all with a grain of salt but don't use wishful thinking as a gauge. I suspect the unreported younger people are not being included as cases. That will bring the numbers down as China still has a growing population ( more young than old ). If you use Italy's numbers where they have many more old than young, things look worse.
    Iran's numbers are obviously flawed. Unless they have a miracle drug or something, they don't know what they are doing. They seem to have people getting cured before they even contract the virus. Still their numbers are currently between 15% and 5% but until they are significantly on the decline one can't make any judgement.
    South Korea has leveled off and had some time to stabilize. Its min/max is about 1% to 8%. of those that catch the virus.
    The US CDC has a number of 2% of those that catch the virus.
    Dwight

  5. #95
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    With respect to China, their population is estimated to be about 1.4+ billion. That's a lot of humanity. When you talk about 67 thousand recovered cases and 11 thousand active cases, those numbers are hardly relevant when you consider the country's population on the whole. The info we're getting from China, if it is to be believed at all, is the doctored numbers released by the powers that be. China's area is over 3.7 million square miles; that's a lot of territory and where's the accounting figures for the remote areas? I personally don't think they have anything under control at this point. This is just tip of the iceberg in that part of the world.
    Surely not everyone was Kung-fu fighting

  6. #96
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    President just announced that the Fed has dropped interest rates to zero.

  7. #97
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chuckster_in_Jax View Post
    President just announced that the Fed has dropped interest rates to zero.
    Yeah, how does that work? Next maybe they'll be paying us to take our money back.
    Surely not everyone was Kung-fu fighting

  8. #98
    Join Date
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    Quote Originally Posted by Agent Orange View Post
    Yeah, how does that work? Next maybe they'll be paying us to take our money back.
    There is the option of negative interest rates. Take out a loan for 'x' amount of money and you pay back the lending institution less tan the amount you borrowed.

  9. #99

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    Actually, you won't get any interest at the bank. They will charge you instead. And, since everyone is reliant upon the banks for your electronic transactions, it will be better off to keep your cash under the mattress, and only use the bank when you need to use your credit card. Perhaps my logic will cause a run on the banks, and the final collapse of a flawed system.

    You can all thank China for conducting biological warfare against the west, and succeeding. (I love making up convincing conspiracy theories)

  10. #100

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    I am not optimistic about this thread's chances if we veer off into a discussion of central banking and negative interest rates. In fact, I anticipate a mortality rate way higher than that of any virus.

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