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Thread: Covid-19

  1. #21

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    Speaking as a European, what I'm seeing now is US treating the virus like we did a couple of weeks ago. May I say that it's not just a flu and no, the actual number of cases is not as low as you think right now. Don't underestimate it like we did in many countries.

  2. #22
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    Germany's first instance was January 27. 1 1/2 months later there are 2750 cases and 6 deaths.

    Germany has had 80,000 cases of flu since fall, half astonishingly in last 2 weeks. 130 deaths in the entire season.

    Angela Merkela predicts 70% of Germany will contract covid-19. Germany has ~83 million people.

  3. #23

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    Quote Originally Posted by tipc View Post
    The point was the number that have it is tiny. If a 1000 came down with it it would still be a tiny percentage. People are taking large precautions. But for instance I think it extremely unlikely I contracted covid-19 by eating at the chinese buffet the other day. I may not go back for a few weeks though (and a major reason is I need to stop eating huge meals). Believe you me if 1000 documented cases occurred a week from now, no one would be going anywhere, and the tide would be effectively stemmed. The "crisis" wouldn't be over at that point. But there would be a drastic reduction in new cases. People would respond, the best they could, appropriately.

    I think the number in NJ is still 29. It doesn't appear to be spreading very much. And 1000 out of 6 million is less then 1 in 5000. Absolutely insignificant. And it seems to only be deadly to those in excess of 60 with eggregious health issues.
    There was a point where only 29 people in Italy had it. There are some easy things to do like close schools, public events, etc. But not everyone can work from home and people need to eat. So unless people are forced to stay home, not all of them will. And then it's just rolling the dice.

  4. #24

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    If your 30 or under, your not likely to die. At 40, the number of deaths begins to rise exponentially. For the 80 and above group, it is about 30% die that get it. They are talking about limiting group gathering to less than 1000. Some of the worst outbreaks were in groups of around 30 in Singapore. It has taken about a month to undo the damage of that small a group.
    Italy has completely missed the message. They are only about 1 week late on taking measures to deal with the problem. Here we are seeing that they are worried about closing schools. The problems are many. A lot of kids get free lunch on sate programs. Many of the families have both parents working. If they wait until the first cases show up, many parents will be forced to send their kids to the grand parents. A small percentage of them will have the virus, killing their grand parents.
    It has taken China more than a month to knock it down to less than 50 new cases a day. They still have the most active cases but if you are worried about catching it from travelers from someplace, Italy, Iran, in fact most any European country are about 3 to 5 times more dangerous than China is right now. I guess we should be making jokes about Italian restaurants now.
    Comparing it to the flu is being like keeping ones head in the sand. This stuff spreads several times faster than the flu and about 20 to 30 times the chance of dying if you get it. At the rate it spreads, if nothing is done, you will get it.
    Dwight
    Last edited by Dwight Elvey; March 13th, 2020 at 07:02 AM.

  5. #25

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    Quote Originally Posted by Plasma View Post
    There was a point where only 29 people in Italy had it. There are some easy things to do like close schools, public events, etc. But not everyone can work from home and people need to eat. So unless people are forced to stay home, not all of them will. And then it's just rolling the dice.
    This is exactly what most countries facing now a big problem did. Underestimated it. Close down schools? Nah, only 50 sick in the whole country. And then boom, you're out of IC beds. Keep in mind that because of the mild symptoms for most people not everyone gets checked, actual number of infected people is at least x20 of the officially declared

  6. #26
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    This is a good video explaining things: https://youtube.com/watch?v=BYTFk34nhol

    The opportunity to stop COVID-19 has passed in most places, so the current objective is to slow the spread so that hospitals aren't overwhelmed. Approximately 12% of the people who get infected will need medical attention (e.g. hospitalization) and there isn't enough capacity to handle them all unless they can be spread out over a larger period of time.

    I have been working from home all week and plan to continue do so for the next few weeks, not because I am worried about catching COVID-19 myself, but because I don't want to catch it and spread it to others (and, thankfully, because my job and my employer allow me to do so). One of my coworkers has his father at home with him, in poor health. If I were to get COVID-19 and give it to my coworker, it would pretty much be a death sentence for his father. Since it's easy for me to work from home, I really have no excuse not to.

  7. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dwight Elvey View Post
    They are talking about limiting group gathering to less than 1000
    https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/coro...death/2251123/

  8. #28
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    this msg just went out to CHM staff

    " CHM has made the decision to temporarily close to the public, from March 14 through March 31, 2020. "

  9. #29
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    School districts across the country are closing. By this time next week I'd say 80 - 90% of all schools will be closed.

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  10. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by Al Kossow View Post
    this msg just went out to CHM staff

    " CHM has made the decision to temporarily close to the public, from March 14 through March 31, 2020. "
    This might be more a question for the LCM folks but I assume the CHM runs a few large systems 24/7 as well.
    Do you power everything down in situations like this to save energy or is there too much of a "will it even start again?" penalty to flip the switch?
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